I’ve been saying for years that a Singularity in machine intelligence isn’t particularly likely (though I do think machine intelligence and consciousness are at least theoretically plausible). I just don’t think that magical rapture moments are plausible — the Singularity is borrowed straight from Christian apocalyptic thinking (see especially my first, but also my fourth and fifth books…lol).
But the technoreligious version of apocalypticism hasn’t really lost steam (any more than its Christian counterpart, which is going strong despite 2000 years worth of contrary evidence). And so, we’re stuck hearing relentlessly while Sam Altman and other tech hypsters say silly things about the Singularity at hand (for a nice accumulation of them, see Gary Marcus’s blog post).
I still plan to win my bet that we won’t have AGI by 2029.
The thing is, the folks who push so hard for you to buy the Singularity logic want that because it serves their goals, not yours. I wouldn’t be surprised if Hans Moravec, Vernor Vinge, and Ray Kurzweil (to name the three most substantive folks in developing the Singularity discourse) really did believe that we could attain an explosion of machine intelligence that would bring abundance to humanity.
But it’s totally inconceivable (and not in the Princess Bride way) that when folks who horde tremendous resources, exacerbate wealth inequality, make outlandish predictions about robot cars, extract natural and human resources, etc…who do all that, then tell us we don’t need retirement accounts or that the future will be wondrously without economic worry…it’s inconceivable that they’re telling the truth.
Maybe it’s deliberate or maybe they’re just hallucinating. Maybe a LLM told them the Singularity is nigh and that it will be lovely for us all.
Or maybe they’re just aware that Singularity hype serves their interests even to the exclusion of the rest of the human population and pretty much all nonhuman species. Will there be a Singularity? Maybe, but I still doubt it. If it arrives will it be good? Not if we cannot get a grasp on all the technologies that play a role in the promises of radical futurism. We need to harness our technologies toward civilized ends because civilization is worthwhile.
If you want to know more, check out Futureproofing Humanity. Some folks say they like it!
…if you don’t believe me, you can see reviews on Readers’ Favorite, Amazon, and Goodreads … and here’s what Pulitzer Prize winning journalist John Markoff said about it:
“In Apocalyptic AI, Robert Geraci was far ahead of most of us in calling out the foibles of a small group of technologists who were attempting to foist off digital technology as a new God. In his new book, Futureproofing Humanity, he poses the same important questions about humanity, computing, and religion. Like Stewart Brand before him, he points out that the power of these new computing and genetic engineering technologies brings new responsibilities for humanity, and if we are to survive as a species we must take that responsibility seriously.”
I gotta say, to be compared to Stewart Brand was a heck of a delight!
Robert M Geraci 